Published in 1999
Everyone can see the fire burning, expertise lies in smelling the smoke – a quote that all of us has heard more than once in our lives. Translate that into biz world and it sounds similar to – ‘I should have bought Yahoo stock in 1996’ vs. ‘I bought Yahoo stock in 1996’. Needless to say, our future depends a lot on our ability to spot emerging trends and translating them into biz opportunities.Â
On the other hand, sometimes it makes sense to take the leadership position and start a trend – where a gap exists – and change the paradigm altogether. Based on what I see in the market today and some of the gaps & emerging trends (GeT) here is my betting list.
Thin client is thin no more – Gap
Have you lately noticed how bloated the so-called ‘thin client’ has become? Just the browser itself takes more than 25MB and this does not include helper apps or other plug-ins that you may have to install. The browser is good enough for reading documents or text-based information sharing, but it severely limits the kind of user experience you can provide. On top of that, developing applications rich in functionality to run within the browser is not only a pain in the neck but is overly restrictive, to say the least.
So, the time has come to think outside the browser. In fact, the trend had already started with helper apps, like RealAudio, where we do not have to start a browser to enjoy the power of web. Now we have reached the inflection point where it makes a lot of sense to provide ‘software agents’ to users that they can download and configure for their own use rather than forcing the user to go to your web site every time they need to perform a function, or, have these agents run on the web itself. One of the upside of this would be that the user is less likely to click away to another site – so no question of losing eyeballs.
This kind of software agent will use the power of web technology for data collection and transactions and can use the power of PC for delivering excellent user interface. Let us take an example – today we usually go to couple of different sites or price comparison sites and try to find out where we can get the best deal. Then we may end up going to multiple sites to get the cheapest price on each of the items that we wanted; or we may end up buying everything from one site even though we might be paying few extra $$$s for the sake of convenience.
Now consider this – I have a ‘Shopping Agent’ that resides on my PC or on the web. All I have to do is to start up this agent and set up my decision factors, as I would decide if I had to do all these tasks by myself. So, I could define rules like – Buy books and CDs from the site that is cheaper and Buy clothes from Land’s End unless Macy’s is selling the same thing cheaper, etc. The agent will work on its own without any intervention from me and I can go off and do something better with my time. The power of web will be realized when software starts working for me rather than I working the software. Just imagine what a Broker Agent software could do to day-trading.
Merging e-commerce with old commerce – Gap
You may know of someone who goes to local bookshop and browses the aisles to see which books s/he likes and then comes home and orders them over the web – maybe from the same shop’s web site. It makes a lot of sense to do that because now you got the best of both worlds – you can sample the books in person and get the rock-bottom price too.
Sooner or later this is where a paradigm shift will happen. The old commerce will start taking advantage of the new commerce. You could walk into the local Barnes & Nobel and when you have browsed the aisles you walk up to a kiosk and order the same book from B&N’s web site for less. Or, when you walk up to the cash register the clerk asks you – ‘would you like to order them through our web store, or would you like to buy them now’? You may decide to buy one or two at that time and order the rest via web and pay for all of them then & there. That way B&N does not lose a customer, and you do not have to send your credit card information over the web along with having other payment options, like cash. A win-win situation for everyone except the competitors that are stuck in e-space only.
Portals, portals everywhere – Emerging trend
Now that e-commerce is not the leading edge and B2B commerce has become an old term where do we go next? The trends we are going to see are information (content) management and portals in every shape and form. A lot of companies have already started positioning themselves as leaders in being corporate portals, information portals or personal portals. This definitely will become the next killer app area. If this idea is combined with what I mentioned earlier – software agents – we may finally see the killer app for the web. Imagine your desktop being your portal. Microsoft started with the idea of active desktop but did not take it far enough. What if we can download, for free, a personal portal from Yahoo or Excite or Alta Vista or a third party that combines information, search, e-commerce, messaging and collaboration etc.? Why do I have to start the browser or another application every time I need to do any of these functions? The desktop can become the point of convergence for all of power that web has to provide. This becomes especially easier and powerful when we have always on connections like DSL or cable modem etc.
Global trade with e-currency – Gap
Today, majority of e-commerce is targeted for North America. Even if many organizations would like to expand beyond N.A. one of the prohibitive problem is the very reason for doing commerce – money, as not all currencies are convertible. On top of it many people do not use credit card or may not want to enter the CC information into a web site.
What needs to emerge is a common e-currency. This is easier said than done, as there will be legislative and political hurdles that will have to be crossed. Consider if you may, that we have an e-card that is ONLY accepted on the net. You buy this card which is prepaid in local currency and are allocated e-points for that amount. The e-commerce sites that honor this e-card will not only show the price is US$ or other currencies but also in e-points. That way all you have to do is make sure you bought enough points to cover your purchases and then re-charge the card only when you need to purchase something. No more fear of someone stealing your credit card information over the wire or from an e-retailer’s database.
Possibilities Unlimited
The possibilities are endless, and I tried to highlight some of the trends that will emerge on web and how it will truly be assimilated into our lives. The organizations and people who are courageous enough to think fast and outside of the box (not to mention the browser) are going to be the winners. That would be the time when we can truly say – The web has arrived.